Pakistan’s weather is mostly dry, and temperatures have been above normal for most parts of the country in October so far. This trend is likely to continue until at least 25th October. Only two moderate-intensity WDs have impacted mostly the upper parts of the country in the first decade of October. While the southern parts of the country including Karachi received only isolated light showers during this time. Southern parts are also experiencing hotter than normal day and night temperatures.
This higher temperatures trend and lower rains resulted in delaying Rabbi crop sowing in some plain areas of the country. The reason for this trend is attributed to back-to-back tropical systems developing in the Arabian Sea. A tropical depression developed in 2nd week of October and tracked from the central/northern Arabian Sea to Oman and adjoining areas. 2nd possible reason for the higher temperatures trend is the lack of any strong WDs during this period. This resulted in lower-than-normal rains and snow over northern mountains.
This trend is likely to continue for a few more days to come. A moderate intensity WD is expected to affect upper areas of the country starting 23rd October and is likely to prevail for 2-3 days. This will result in rains and snow over the upper parts of the country including Upper/central KPK, GB, Kashmir, and Upper parts of Punjab. After the departure of this WD, the temperature will drop significantly in most parts of the country. A drop of 3-4 degrees C is likely in upper/central parts and 4-5 degrees C in southern parts of the country from 26th October onwards. This means winter will set in Northern areas while autumn vibes will be experienced in central/southern parts of the country, bringing much-needed respite from prevailing hot weather.