This year 2024, monsoon started on time in Pakistan, in the first week of July. The start of this year’s monsoon was not impressive in Pakistan and adjoining regions. The reason for this sluggish start was the prevailing neutral weather pattern after a strong El Nino. However, despite the slow start, July was not disappointing either as by the end of the month, the rain deficit was just 9.16%.
Progress of Monsoon in July
Against the monthly normal average (from the year 1961 to 2023) rainfall of 63.3 mm, the country received 57.5 mm of rainfall in July. A deficit of 9.16%, which is considered near normal rainfall. On the regional scale, only Balochistan and Punjab received above normal rains. Balochistan received above-normal rainfall with 34.3 mm of rain against the average of 29.7 mm, a surplus of 16%. Punjab also received above-normal rainfall with 112.4 mm of rain against the average of 104.1 mm, a surplus of 8%.
Gilgit Baltistan received the least rainfall with only 4.6 mm against the average monthly average of 13.3 mm. This means the region is a rain deficit by 65%. Azad Kashmir received 46% less rainfall with 94.7 mm of monthly tally against an average of 173.9 mm. Sindh posted a 44% deficit as 33.8 mm of rains were recorded against the monthly average of 60.1 mm. Kyber Pakhtunkhwa performed a little better with a 21% rain deficit as it recorded 84 mm of rainfall against the average of 106.7 mm.
Progress of Monsoon in August
The month of August was a completely different story compared to July 2024. Monsoon stays active for most of the month and all parts of the country receive plenty of rain during the month. During the month, the country received excessively above average at 147%. Against the monthly average rainfall of 56.2 mm, the country has received a whopping 138.9 mm of rain, making it the second wettest August on record since 1961.
On the regional scale, Sindh tops the chart as it posted a surplus of 337% as 234 mm of rains were recorded against the monthly average of 53.6 mm. Balochistan followed suit with 82.2 mm of rain against the average of just 22.5 mm, a surplus of 266%. Punjab received above-normal rainfall with 200.7 mm of rain against the average of 93.5 mm, a surplus of 115%.
Gilgit Baltistan received above-normal rainfall with 30.9 mm of rain. Against the average of 16.7 mm, a surplus of 85%. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa followed suit with 133.6 mm of rain against the average of 103.6 mm, a surplus of 29%. Rain tally in Azad Kashmir was near normal with 13% surplus rainfall during the whole month as it received 170.5 mm of rain against the average of 150.7 mm.
Conclusion
During July-August, Pakistan was blessed with above-normal rainfall. As against the average July-August rainfall of 119.8 mm, the country has recieved 196.4 mm which is a 63.9% surplus. These surplus rains resulted in the filling of critical dams. Tarbela and Mangla to near maximum storage capacity. As of 7th September, Tarbela is 100% filled with water storage level at 1550 feet against a maximum storage capacity of 1550 feet. Meanwhile level of water storage in Mangla Dam is at 1226.9 feet against the maximum storage of 1242 feet. This storage will be beneficial for the winter crops.